SOUTHERN Queensland graingrowers buoyed by a return to full moisture profiles are assessing their planting options ahead of what is tipped to be one of the largest winter cropping seasons for several years.
Australian Crop Forecasters expects Queensland farmers to "go big" this winter, with significant plantings of wheat and chick peas expected.
"We would expect that with all the moisture that has been received, plus the lack of summer crops that have gone in this year, growers will plant big," ACF senior forecaster Gavin Warburton said of the winter cropping outlook for Queensland.
"We have a view that in Queensland when growers get the moisture, they use it, because they do not know what rainfall will be coming next summer or winter so they're very opportunistic and will use that moisture to plant big."
While recent rains have provided one key ingredient to a large winter plant, the other vital ingredient of price is not proving so enticing.
The price outlook for the main winter staples of wheat, barley and chickpeas is looking flat to bearish, enough to prompt predictions that some farmers may be encouraged to look at holding moisture over for a summer crop later in the year.
"I personally think some growers will look at the spectrum of options for winter and think maybe they're not that good, and possibly try to carry some of this good moisture into summer," Mike Burgis from Conservation Farmers Inc said. "An option there would be possibly cotton if they had good soil moisture."
WHEAT: Wheat prices are under downward pressure from a range of factors, in particular the large and growing supply of global grain stocks, and an unfavourable exchange rate at present which is making Australian wheat and barley more expensive compared to grain from other origins around the world.
Marketing analyst Malcolm Bartholomaeus told Southern Queensland growers at a series of NAB-sponsored forums earlier this month that they should expect prices for wheat to be lower in 2010 than they were in 2009.
His advice was for growers to take a proactive approach to marketing and talk to their banking representatives about using $A swaps to take advantage of price rises that occur in the 12 months before or after harvest.
By taking a long term view to the marketing of each crop, growers could still secure favourable prices. "A year on year price increase can be locked in right now," he told growers at the NAB forums.
BARLEY: Steve Sloss of Pentag Commodities, Toowoomba, said the early seasonal break augured well for a small swing back to feed barley plantings, both for rotational reasons and as mixed farmers looked to take advantage of the livestock feeding options barley provided.
"Farmers I am talking to at the moment are looking at putting in a bit more barley compared to last year," Mr Sloss said. "Barley planting hectares have been in decline over recent years in Northern New South Wales and Queensland a major influence had been the price spread between barley and wheat. Farmers who have traditionally grown malt will probably grow malt again but most of the new acres that come back to barley will probably be feed varieties."
CHICK PEAS: Dan Quigley of Philp Brodie Grains said chick peas were currently priced at around $400 a tonne delivered on the Downs and as a result may be shaping as the most appealing of the main winter planting options.
Chick peas were a reliable crop, growers knew how to grow them and at current prices the prospect of yielding three quarters of a tonne of chickpeas at current prices may present a more attractive option than yields of one tonne per acre of wheat at current prices.
Mike Burgis from CFI believes the area planted to chickpeas will be limited only by the quantity and quality of seed available. With demand for chickpeas likely to be high, a message to growers was not to wait too long before ordering seed.
ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS: The staples of wheat, barley and chickpeas are about the limit of the main winter cropping options for Queensland growers, however less common alternatives include oilseed crops such as canary, linseed and canola.
Northern markets for these crops are very small and lack liquidity. With limited marketing options available, northern growers can find it difficult to find markets and move crop following harvest, but that is balanced against the potential that exists for the more volatile supply and demand factors in these niche markets to deliver opportunistic price spikes.
Pittsworth farmer Paul Fuhlbohm has successfully trialled canola plantings in the past two winters and achieved yields of 2t/ha in 2008 and 1t/ha last year. He believes there is room for the Queensland canola market to slowly expand, but says it is currently very small and vulnerable to oversupply.
It took him until last week to move the last of his 2009 crop, he said.
"Demand is not huge up here," Mr Fuhlbohm said. "The more it is grown the more uses it will find up here, but you can't rush it.
"I think if you started producing 15,000t a year you would probably flood the market pretty quickly."
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