Kevin Rudd could tear apart the newly merged LNP in Queensland by calling a double dissolution election based on the emissions trading scheme.
But he'd have to weigh up the benefits against the challenge of dealing with a stronger Greens presence in the Senate.
That's the opinion of Dr Ian Ward who, as the Senate bashes heads this week over the ETS, was asked to speculate how a double dissolution could affect Queensland's 12 Upper House seats.
Currently, the state has five Labor, five Liberal and two National Senators, although the conservative parties have joined forces since the last federal election.
If, as expected, the Senate rejects the government's ETS bill, it can reintroduce it in three months. If it's again rejected, the Prime Minister can use it as a trigger to dissolve both houses of Parliament.
Dr Ward said the Coalition parties certainly had the most to lose federally if a double dissolution was held on an ETS, particularly the newly formed LNP in Queensland.
"One of the unresolved questions is how the new united party will handle ... Ron Boswell and Barnaby Joyce," Dr Ward said.
"Barnaby Joyce presents himself in the federal parliament as the leader of the Nationals but of course he's not a member of the National Party in Queensland, but of the newly created coalition.
"He's clearly on the periphery (on climate change) in terms of the federal Coalition. He's at the other end of the spectrum from Malcolm Turnbull on this and he may well want to run the National Party line rather than the Liberal Party line.
"That would pose some realy political difficulties for Turnbull."
Local Greens campaigner Drew Hutton said his party would be the "big winners" in an ETS double dissolution, and could expect to at least double their current representation of five Senators as well as pick up possible Lower House seats.
"We would be very confident of winning our first Queensland (Senate) seat," Mr Hutton said.
With the required quota to win a Senate seat reduced in a double dissolution from 1/7th of the vote to 1/13, Dr Ward agreed the Greens were likely to gain ground.
"I guess the quota would be around 190,000 votes, and at the last election the Greens got about 177,000," he said.
Mr Hutton said an election on an ETS would force the Opposition Leader to make a stand against the Nationals, who had been appealing to the "lowest common denominator of their voter base" on the issue.
"Would Liberal voters vote for Ron Boswell, who's a climate change denier?" Mr Hutton said.
When the LNP merged last year, it attempted to prevent infighting about the next Senate ticket by setting a pecking order in its Constitution. The order goes, former Liberal Senator, former National Senator, former Liberal Senator, former Liberal Senator.
So if a normal half-Senate election were called, this would go George Brandis, Barnaby Joyce, Brett Mason, Russell Trood.
However, it would appear the party has no plan to deal with the possibility of a double dissolution. Calls to the LNP's Queensland headquarters have gone unanswered.
Dr Ward said while he didn't consider a double dissolution likely, it would depend what kind of electoral benefit the PM considered achievable.
"By definition you would expect to see a higher number of Greens and independents in the Senate, and that could cause troubles for any government," Dr Ward said.
"It's a bit hard to know how it would play out.
"The LNP has some internal decision making to settle. You can imagine this might pose some tensions that Rudd in his home state might seek to exploit.
"It's in Kevin Rudd's head. The PM makes that call and who knows what he'll think. He's not easy to read at times," Dr Ward said.
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