ACCUSATIONS that “less meat means less heat”, inferring that cutting back on livestock production is a panacea for global warming, are wide of the mark according to the Australian Farm Institute (AFI).
The Insitute’s executive director, Mick Keogh, points to some flaws in the way livestock emissions are accounted for in several life-cycle analyses (LCAs) that have been used to make cases against red meat production.
A WorldWatch report released last year attributed 51 per cent of all man-made greenhouse emissions to livestock production, but did so partly by including the carbon dioxide breathed out by livestock in its life-cycle analysis (LCA).
“As a large number of other authorities (including the FAO, the IPCC, and more recently Pitesky et al. 2009) have pointed out, carbon-dioxide exhaled by livestock is derived from plant matter that has grown by fixing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and is therefore effectively emissions-neutral and should not be counted as a source of emissions,” Mr Keogh wrote in the latest edition of the AFI publication Farm Institute Insights.
“Even leaving aside this argument, if these emissions are to be counted then the sequestration that occurs annually in growing pastures and livestock feed production should also be counted.”
The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in 2006 released a widely-quoted report, 'Livestock’s Long Shadow', which attributed 18pc of man-made emissions to livestock.
Part of the report’s charge against livestock production is that it is the cause for virtually all forest clearing, particularly in South America.
But Mr Keogh points to recent studies that suggest 20-40pc of Brazilian forest clearing is now driven by the desire to create cropping land.
“Reinforcing this, the area used for soybean production in that country has increased from 11.7 million hectares in 1994 to more than 23 million hectares in 2009,” he wrote.
“In addition, the expansion of other cropping activities, such as sugar production for ethanol, on already cleared land is indirectly resulting in forest clearing by forcing smaller-scale farmers to move to new areas and to clear trees to provide grazing areas for livestock.”
The overarching question addressed by Mr Keogh is whether reducing livestock numbers would reduce emissions.
The immediate effect of reducing livestock numbers on the rangelands, he argues, would be to increase cropping intensity in higher rainfall areas, and to increase the amount of vegetation in the rangelands prone to destructive and carbon-releasing fires.
There is also a fundamental accounting issue: while global livestock numbers have risen in a relatively smooth trend line over the past 20 years, concentrations of methane in the atmosphere appear to have levelled out.
Available information shows “virtually no correlation between livestock numbers and atmospheric methane concentrations”, Mr Keogh wrote.
“This strongly suggests that livestock methane emissions are only a very minor driver of atmospheric methane levels and even if the ‘Less meat means less heat’ campaign did result in reduced global ruminant livestock numbers, there is little likelihood that it would make any real difference to atmospheric methane concentrations.”
* The latest Farm Institute Insights paper is available here.