The wheat harvest should exceed by 1.3 million tonnes that of 2008-09.

The outlook for the overall winter grains crop, however, is variable across the Australian grains belt because of patchy rainfall in some regions, according to ABARE’s September issue of the Australian crop report.

“Despite the variable conditions across regions, the winter grains harvest as a whole is forecast to increase in 2009-10,” Dr Terry Sheales, deputy executive director, ABARE, said today on releasing the report.

Australia’s winter grains production is forecast to be around 36 million tonnes in 2009-10, 2.8 million tonnes more than that of the previous season. It's 1.2 million tonnes more than ABARE’s forecast released in June 2009.

In Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria the majority of crops are well placed leading into the spring months.

The prospects for winter crops in most regions in Queensland and the northern New South Wales grains belt, however, have been adversely affected by below average winter rainfall.

Crops in southern New South Wales are in urgent need of good rains, with some having already failed and the yield potential of most others declining rapidly.

Dr Sheales cautioned that rainfall in the spring months would be crucial for crops in all regions to reach current potential.

However, the widespread but moderate rain across the eastern states in the past week fell after much of the data for this survey was collected, so that should help to keep the forecast on track.

Even so, Dr Sheales highlighted that although early September rainfall was helpful for crops in northern New South Wales and Queensland, yield potential had already been adversely affected because of the dry winter.

Lower crop production in these regions is likely to be more than offset by the improved outlook for Western Australia.

Among the other winter grains, ABARE forecasts include:

• Barley production to increase by 1.1 million tonnes in 2009-10 to 7.9 million tonnes.

• Canola production to lift by 1.7 million tonnes in 2009-10, compared with 1.9 million tonnes harvested in the previous season. Canola yields in Western Australia are expected to remain favourable in 2009-10, but lower than the records achieved in 2008-09.