CROPS in the eastern states' northern grainbelt have felt the pinch from record August temperatures and strong winds.
In contrast, yield potential is still high in southern regions, and in WA.
So seasonal prospects have really began to flip in earnest from expectations at the start of the season.
The upshot is that total national crop estimates remain rudimentary aids at best, with no-one able to give an accurate figure until more is known about the spring.
The June ABARE figures of a winter crop of 34.8 million tonnes remains on the lower side of most revised estimates, with most somewhere between 35 and 38 million tonnes.
At sowing time, it was northern growers who were confident of landing a good year, buoyed by good summer rains which filled soil moisture profiles.
In contrast, farmers in southern areas were nervous, knowing that crop prospects were totally reliant on in-season rainfall, after falls of just 10mm for the year up until the last week of April in parts of Victoria.
However, a heatwave which saw temperatures climb to a NSW-record 37 degrees at Evans Head on the north coast, and pushed the mercury over 30 degrees in key northern NSW growing areas.
Crops through northern NSW and Queensland are now desperate for rain to meet anywhere near early yield expectations.
In contrast, Western Australia has experienced a damp August, with many major grain producing areas recording well above average rainfall, setting up the season well.
Victoria and South Australia are less uniformly positive, but there is still excellent potential in both states after widespread falls of around 13mm in both states this week and with more predicted over the weekend.
The state of the states: Qld
Central Queensland has the worst outlook across the country, with growers already spraying out paddocks for moisture conservation.
This week’s hot weather sent crops into a ‘nosedive’, according to AgForce grains president Lyndon Pfeffer,
Mr Pfeffer said rain was needed immediately in central Queensland if it was to avoid a lower than average harvest.
“After being crook for a month, this hot weather has resulted in most crops turning blue with water stress and now either being fed to cattle or sprayed-out to conserve soil moisture for next season,” Mr Pfeffer said.
“The last decent rain in CQ was around Easter and many crops are now failing.
It is not much better in Mr Pfeffer’s own Darling Downs region.
In spite of better opening rains, the crop is now struggling to hold on.
“The Darling Downs area is holding on, but if it doesn’t rain soon there will be serious concerns in many parts of the southern Queensland grain belt,” Mr Pfeffer said.
NSW:
Northern NSW crops are generally getting by on stored moisture.
Landmark Gunnedah agronomist Aaron Goddard said crops there are now pushing a head up due to the heat and dry.
“It got to 31 degrees here this week, and combined with the wind it has pushed things back a lot in the past fortnight.”
However, he said there were crops on long fallow that were hanging on well, although all could do with a drink within the week.
“There are forecasts of around 10mm for the weekend, which would buy us a little time.”
The subsoil moisture has been the key in getting crops through thus far.
“Crops have done well for the season, with very little rain, they’ve all survived on that stored moisture.”
South of Dubbo, things are struggling after a drier than average winter.
Wagga Wagga has received well less than its average winter rain, with just 83mm for June and July. Crops were crying for rain until 10mm over the weekend.
Victoria:
In Victoria, the Wimmera and North Central regions received a welcome 13mm over the past couple of days after prevailing dry conditions for nearly a month.
The Mallee region still is on track, although rain would be welcome. It is only the far north-west of Vic that is truly desperate for rain.
Chris Sounness, Department of Primary Industries (DPI) said the state was still on track to record 7.1 million tonnes of winter grain production with an average finish.
“Crops have excellent potential and are well positioned to take advantage of spring rain if we get it.
“There is generally enough moisture about – we just need that one big rain event through the spring for farmers to feel confident.
“What we want is to see a local show day washed out.”
SA:
South Australian crop condition varies from very good through parts of the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas and through the south-east to almost failed already in parts of the Upper Mallee.
Despite the poor patches Chris Heinjus, Rural Directions, based in Freeling in SA’s mid-north, said overall crop condition was ahead of the same time last year.
“There’s some localised concerns with dry conditions, but that’s not the big picture, overall we are way in front of this time last year, although unfortunately not all will be enjoying the improvement.”
He said the state had benefited from recent rain and some areas, such as the Lower Eyre Peninsula, were tracking well above their average winter rain.
However, through the more marginal areas of the northern Mallee he said crops were struggling and would battle to make it through to grain production barring an excellent finish.
In the state’s far south-east, producers are battling a problem rare over the past decade – waterlogging.
“There’s certainly some areas that are getting too wet, while others really need some to catch up,” Mr Heinjus said.
WA:
Western Australia is going well. Early in the month, a ProFarmer crop report had 68pc of WA crops looking fair or better. This was markedly less than SA’s 80pc and Victoria and NSW also posted higher figures, but in the three weeks following the report WA has recorded by far the best rainfall.
With the exception of some eastern grain production areas, such as around Lake Grace, things are set up for an average to above average season.
Again, there are problems with it getting too wet.
Karryn Dorrell, an agronomist with Elders at Katanning in the Great Southern said she was hoping for some sunshine.
“Things are looking good, perhaps a little bit on the wet side.”
“We’ve certainly got the moisture to get crops through for a while – there have been a few patches that have got quite badly waterlogged.”
Price estimates remain stagnant, with marketers not yet seeing any potential decline in the north suggesting a new crop price rise.
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