News 
 National Rural News 
 Agribusiness and General 
 Political 
 Budget 08: Strong rural prices boost terms of trade 

Budget 08: Strong rural prices boost terms of trade

13/05/2008 1:14:00 PM
The Federal budget has forecast strong growth in rural exports as drought recovery kicks in. However, poor water availability will keep a lid on overall farm gross domestic product.

There will be strong growth in overall exports of 6pc in 2008-2009, or double last year's growth rate, according to the budget estimates.

In the budget's economic outlook papers, farm production is forecast to increase by 20pc in the coming year following the past two years of drought.

The outlook says the recovery is underpinned by a rebound in the production of cereal crops such as wheat and barley.

However, livestock production is expected to remain subdued, according to the budget papers.

The papers say while the improved seasonal conditions are expected to result in increased herd rebuilding, the number of livestock slaughtered is expected to fall.

While wheat production is expected to recover significantly, the recovery in total farm GDP is forecast to be weak by historical standards due to low water availability.

"Despite good rainfall over large parts of Australia during summer, low water storage levels still persist in some of Australia's key farming regions," the papers say.

"This is particularly the case for the Murray Darling Basin, which accounts for 40pc of Australia's gross value of agricultural production.

"Constrained growth in this region will weigh on aggregate farm production."

But strong rural prices and falling import prices are also expected to support Australia's terms of trade, which is set to witness a big rise from levels that are already the highest in 50 years.

Rural prices have risen in recent times, driven by temporary supply side factors such as drought, rising demand from emerging economies and increased biofuels production.

Australian dollar import prices are expected to continue to fall but at a slower rate, given some upward pressure from higher world inflation.

Print
Increase Text Size
Decrease Text Size


Comments


Date: Newest first | Oldest first
Not too many export dollars to be made trying to deal with US currency, hence, I'm guessing the blind statement about livestock being subdued.

Any closer export markets don't have the money to trade anyway.

Not sure how this helps "terms of trade" - is this a budget joke?

Posted by Exporter on 14/05/2008 6:54:51 AM

Post A Comment


Screen name  *
Email address  *
Remember me?
Comment  *
We invite and encourage our readers to post comments. Comments are moderated and will appear as soon as our editor has approved them. When posting comments you agree to be bound by our Terms and Conditions.
QCL Subscriptions
 
QCL Rate Card
 
Horse Deals Australia
 
Rural Bookshop
 
QCL - Mail Order Cataloge
 SEND...
 SAVE...
 SHARE...