The new projections cover crops and livestock, agricultural trade and aggregate indicators, such as farm income and food prices through 2021. A USDA announcement notes the “projections do not represent a USDA forecast, but a conditional, long-run scenario based on specific assumptions about farm policy, weather, the economy and international developments.”

Those assumptions can – and likely will change. For instance, provisions of the 2008 Farm Act and subsequent legislation are incorporated into the projections and are assumed to remain in effect through 2021 even though the 2008 farm bill expires in September. Normal weather also is assumed throughout the projection period.

When released, the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2021 report will be online at www.usda.gov/oce .

Background on USDA's long-term projections and past issues of the report are available on the ERS web site at www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/project ions .

The report will be available in printed form on February 23-24 at USDA's 2012 Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Va. (Conference details are found at: www.usda.gov/oce/forum ).