The only certainty to emerge from the Future Fuels Forum last month is that we are in a time of transition regarding fuel: just how that transition occurs, and where it takes us, is anyone's guess.
The 44-page document that was produced from the forum, and released last week to headlines that shouted '$8 a litre by 2018', gave equal weight to two opposing concepts—peak oil, and energy agency forecasts that current high oil prices are temporary.
Peak oil, the idea that the quantity of cost-effective oil available to global economies is peaking and will begin to decline, has long been regarded by mainstream oil scientists as an idea with little traction.
But Paul Graham, leader of CSIRO's Energy Futures project, said that a strong message to come out of the forum is that peak oil should be taken seriously.
"All around the world, government and industry at all levels are acknowledging that we can’t rule out this possibility any more; that it could happen sometime in the next decade," Mr Graham said.
The prospect of peak oil being a reality led to the paper’s headline statement, that if the world hit a near-term peak in oil production, "petrol prices could increase to between A$2 and as much as A$8 per litre by 2018".
At the same time, the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) and International Energy Agency (IEA) have produced forecasts that continue to peg the long-term price of oil at US$60-$70 a barrel—less than half the price it has traded at over the past few weeks.
Mr Graham said that the IEA has already said it will revise its price forecasts in November "to acknowledge the likelihood of depeletion being a problem", but the EIA forecast was only published in March.
"We need to acknowledge that there is an alternative view out there which says that some way or another, we'll find the oil we need," he said.
"It's frustrating. We don't know who's right, so we just have to acknowledge that the outlook is very uncertain."
That uncertainty extends to the alternatives to oil, which for more than a century has provided industry with unmatched bang for its buck.
The paper flags electricity, liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas as the only alternative fuel sources available to the transport market in the short term if there is a sudden marked decline in oil production.
"However, even these fuels will take considerable time to be fully commercialised."
Further out, "second generation" biofuels based on non-food cellulose and alge, and synthetic fuels derived from coal and gas may become possibilities.
But at this point, Mr Graham said, these technologies are still theoretical and may be a decade away from reality.
"Australia is more vulnerable to changing market circumstances than some other countries due to its relatively high vehicle use, the relatively high fuel consumption by vehicles in its fleet, its 97pc reliance on oil-based fuels for transport and declining domestic reserves of conventional oil," the report said.
"In the event of a decline in international oil supplies, technology alone will not be sufficient to meet the fuel supply gap. Reduced travel across freight and passenger transport will be necessary.
“If international oil supply declines slowly then modest reduction in travel of less than five per cent is sufficient. However, if reduction in oil supply is rapid and alternative fuel vehicles are slow to become available, then passenger and freight travel may be reduced by up to 40pc.
"Reduction in travel of this magnitude can be expected to have significant social and economic impacts."
The Future Fuels Forum included a wide cross-section of organisations, from GM Motors Holden and Caltex to the Australian Conservation Foundation and Woolworths.
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