Preliminary trials in Victoria show that genetically modified wheat could lift production yields by about 20pc and GM pastures could economically boost the dairy, beef and wool industries.
Molecular Plant Breeding CRC chief executive Glenn Tong said trials of its drought-tolerant wheat in 2007 and last year were "very promising" — with yields of the GM wheat up to 20pc higher than non-GM wheat under drought stress.
"We have to be very cautious about the interpretation of these preliminary results and bear in mind that there are many field trials to come," Dr Tong said.
Similarly, he said CRC modelling indicated dairy cows eating GM varieties of perennial ryegrass could produce 20pc more milk.
Dr Tong showed the preliminary results of the various trials and economic impact modelling to the annual conference of the Victorian Farmers' Federation Grains Council last week.
Molecular Plant Breeding CRC, based at Bundoora in northern Melbourne, is conducting the $28 million, seven-year GM drought-tolerant wheat project in partnership with BASF Plant Science, a plant biotechnology subsidiary of German chemical giant BASF.
The commercial partner for the GM grass trials is New Zealand agricultural company PGG Wrightson, with the overall project valued at $36 million.
Dr Tong said yield calculations in the modelling were based on Australian Bureau of Resource Economics yield data from the past 38 years.
About half the years analysed were drought-stressed in some way.
"If a 20-25pc increase in yield could be achieved for the drought-stressed years, that translates at the farmgate to a $15 to $115-per-hectare gross benefit to the farmer," he said.
The GM drought-tolerant wheat is not expected to be released to the market for at least another eight years.
"There will be another four or five years of trials," Dr Tong said, followed by three or four years to gain regulatory approval, for example from the Office of the Gene Technology Regulator in Australia and similar authorities overseas.
Dr Tong said it was crucial to produce more wheat to feed the world's growing population.
Annual wheat productivity was growing by 1.1pc globally, but annual demand was growing by 1.7pc.
"If this continues, we will have a serious shortage of a staple crop," he said.
The threat of more frequent droughts from any climate change made the development of a drought-tolerant GM wheat crucial.
Most multinationals have given up research into GM wheat, concentrating instead on corn and soy, he said.
Molecular Plant Breeding CRC, which receives funding from the federal and state governments and commercial partners, has a team of 25 on the GM wheat project.
Dr Tong said it would probably cost BASF about $100 million to take the experimental products through regulatory approvals in the key markets.
The CRC also has several GM trials in Victoria of perennial ryegrass. One is perennial ryegrass engineered to produce less lignin and more fructan.
Dr Tong said this made the ryegrass more digestible and more energy-rich, increasing the amount of energy that animals could extract from the grass.
This made the animals — whether dairy or beef cattle, or sheep — more productive.
"Improving the quality of the feedstock will create an output that is bigger in quantity and better in quality," he said.
In dairy cows, that meant more milk that was higher in quality.
Dr Tong said preliminary estimates were that this could translate to an extra $500 income a year from the average cow, just for the fructan technology.
The estimated 20pc extra energy created by the GM ryegrass was based on conservative modelling, he said.
Lignin and other technologies under development would deliver extra economic benefits.
Dr Tong said a big side-benefit could come from animals producing less methane.
"If the grass is more digestible, this could translate to more efficient fermentation, which in turn could translate to less methane being produced," he said.
"But this hypothesis needs to be tested in animal trials in the future."
Dr Tong said he estimated the ryegrass project should create a commercial product by about 2015.
Email a friend