Australia faces future shortages of common foods, higher prices and nutritional declines in some grains, fruits and vegetables unless urgent action is taken to help farmers adapt to climate change, a new CSIRO report warns.
Cauliflower, lettuce, celery, potato and spinach crops could fail with only small temperature increases, and warmer nights will cut the sugar content of peas, strawberries and melons.
Hotter summer winds will increase pineapple crop losses, and rising temperatures will affect the pollination and ripening of tomatoes and avocados.
The report's co-editor, Mark Howden, said: "We can adapt, but we need to be driving those changes much harder and faster than we are at present."
The 360-page report by CSIRO's Climate Adaptation flagship says Australia should not under-estimate the long-term challenge of climate change and must boost investment on research into how all sectors of agriculture can adapt to climate risks.
Despite Australia's vulnerability to climate change and the many threats to food production, it says, fewer than a dozen potential adaptation measures have been evaluated for their effectiveness and "only a couple" have been costed in terms of their potential benefits.
"Adapting to climate change will involve everything from changes in crop varieties, through to improved seasonal forecasting, up to revised national policies and programs," Dr Howden said.
"The past climate is no longer a good guide to the future climate, so having the skills and resources to respond flexibly will be essential."
For many farms and agricultural businesses "incremental changes may be enough", but some regions and industries would need to consider "more transformative changes".
The CSIRO report examines the impact of climate change on grains, cotton, rice, sugar cane, wine grapes, horticulture, forestry, grazing, livestock and fisheries.
"We've applied the latest climate change projections to build a picture of the challenges that will affect all types of agriculture in all corners of the nation," Dr Howden said.
The report's findings suggest climate change will reduce the quality and market value of Australia's $4.2 billion wheat crop unless new heat-tolerant varieties are developed.
Higher temperatures will cause a 50pc increase in damage from heat shock, reducing the amount of wheat grain protein and its suitability for bread and pasta flour.
Farmers will be forced to sell crops to lower-value markets for biscuit flour, biofuels or stockfeed.
Higher rainfall intensity is tipped to increase dryland salinity by 20pc and make crops more susceptible to fungal and viral diseases.
The report says simple adaptations new wheat varieties, altered crop plantings and improved water management could be worth up to $500million to wheat farmers.
Other climate-change risks include: Difficulty in meeting increased livestock demand for drinking water.
Greater energy demand to artificially cool intensive piggeries and poultry sheds.
Heat stress in dairy cows, leading to reduced milk production and declining pasture quality.
The report suggests, as one solution, creating clusters of "agricultural industrial parks" to moderate increased water and energy demands by intensive livestock industries.
It also identifies the possible use of solar panels to generate energy for air conditioning and the imposition of a carbon tax to regulate energy use.
The report states: "The energy demand for climate control in production units where livestock are farmed in indoor climate-controlled conditions is likely to increase. The majority of this energy is generated by coal-fired power stations, and is likely to incur a carbon tax of some kind, adding to the cost of energy.
"There is also likely to be competition for peak supply with residential users and other industries, potentially resulting in brownouts in some areas."
Intensive livestock production which requires drinking water for livestock, irrigation water and evaporative cooling for farm sheds will be competing with towns and cities for limited water resources.
Climate change is also projected to increase competition between farmers and the emerging biofuels industry for livestock feed.
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