Senior Liberal MPs believe Brendan Nelson could buy himself party hero status by bloodlessly handing over the leadership to Peter Costello - if the former treasurer wanted it.
Pressure is mounting on Mr Costello to declare his plans for the future so the matter can be resolved by December. Some MPs say a deadline of October should be set for the prevaricating MP to reveal his intentions, after which goodwill would evaporate.
The first Saturday in December is realistically the latest date a by-election could be held this year in Mr Costello's Victorian seat of Higgins.
That would mean resigning at least five weeks earlier, in October. MPs believe it would be untenable for Mr Costello to continue dilly-dallying about his future into the new year.
Senior Liberal frontbenchers are trying to convince the former treasurer to remain in Parliament. They rate his chances of staying at 50/50.
But one sceptic said he believed Mr Costello would not meet the challenge of seizing the leadership, even though he would have overwhelming support to do so.
His history showed he was like "lay-down Sally" - a comparison with Olympic rower Sally Robbins, who stopped rowing near the finish line in the women's eights finals at the Athens Olympics.
A swank tribute dinner for Mr Costello in late August and the publication of his memoirs in October point to an imminent announcement, colleagues hope.
One senior source said there had been no shortage of MPs pleading with Mr Costello to stay, but he had been "silent" or "Delphic" in response.
The source said the possibility of Mr Nelson handing over the leadership in a bloodless transition to Mr Costello was realistic, if the former treasurer wanted to stay.
"It is even more obvious now than in November [last year] that someone of Peter Costello's stature is needed for us to have a chance at the next election," a senior source said.
"I think he's genuinely considering it; I no longer think he is convinced he should go. I don't believe Brendan would easily say: 'The job's yours'. But nevertheless, he seriously wants the best thing for the party."
Mr Costello has refused to rule in or out any scenario since saying on November 25, less than 24 hours after the Coalition's election loss, that he would retire to the back bench and build a commercial career.
Pressure on Peter
* November 24, 2007: Peter Costello anointed as next Liberal leader by John Howard.
* November 25, 2007: Spurns leadership, announces move to back bench.
* April 22, 2008: Announces deal to publish his memoir, for reported $200,000.
* July 19: Mark Vaile joins Alexander Downer in quitting Parliament, leaving Costello last of top Howard team.
* October 1: Memoir to hit bookshops. Will decide whether to stay or go.
* December: Byelection or Liberal leadership?
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