Fertiliser prices could dip sharply from the current $1000 a tonne for DAP to $700/t as falling oil prices and diminishing global demand deliver a win for farmers struggling with high input costs.
And strong demand for food long-term should help underpin a reasonable amount of stability in agricultural markets as the sector rides out the current world economic crisis, despite many agricultural stocks being smashed to extremely low levels in recent weeks.
Banking and finance leaders say access to rural credit has not changed and the financial turmoil has not really flowed through to farmers in Australia – shareholdings aside.
Rural stocks have not been immune from the hiding delivered to the stock market of recent weeks, with most shedding significant value, including Futuris, GrainCorp, ABB and Incitec Pivot which are all well down on June figures.
Incitec Pivot Limited – carefully being watched by farmers struggling under the weight of ever-increasing fertiliser prices – is one particular stock which has had a share value collapse of sorts since the start of the financial year.
The IPL share price has slid to $4.73 – down from highs in June of more than $9.90.
However, other market analysts argue the collapse in the value of the Australian dollar will take the edge of any reduction in the global price of fertiliser.
DAP prices climbed a staggering 370 per cent in the 20 months to August 2008, with urea following a similar trajectory, if less extreme.
Since August, when the shocks of the credit crunch began to hit oil prices, fertiliser prices in general have fallen 18-26pc.
How much of this fall flows through to the Australian farm sector depends on the yo-yoing of the Australian dollar. And future pricing of fertiliser depends on several other fundamentals that make an unreadable stew of cause and effect.
Adam Tomlinson, a Rabobank commodities analyst, says there are so many factors at work that it’s impossible to forecast where the trends are headed.