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 Financial crisis could slash fertiliser prices 

Financial crisis could slash fertiliser prices

15/10/2008 3:27:00 PM
Fertiliser prices could dip sharply from the current $1000 a tonne for DAP to $700/t as falling oil prices and diminishing global demand deliver a win for farmers struggling with high input costs.

And strong demand for food long-term should help underpin a reasonable amount of stability in agricultural markets as the sector rides out the current world economic crisis, despite many agricultural stocks being smashed to extremely low levels in recent weeks.

Banking and finance leaders say access to rural credit has not changed and the financial turmoil has not really flowed through to farmers in Australia – shareholdings aside.

Rural stocks have not been immune from the hiding delivered to the stock market of recent weeks, with most shedding significant value, including Futuris, GrainCorp, ABB and Incitec Pivot which are all well down on June figures.

Incitec Pivot Limited – carefully being watched by farmers struggling under the weight of ever-increasing fertiliser prices – is one particular stock which has had a share value collapse of sorts since the start of the financial year.

The IPL share price has slid to $4.73 – down from highs in June of more than $9.90.

However, other market analysts argue the collapse in the value of the Australian dollar will take the edge of any reduction in the global price of fertiliser.

DAP prices climbed a staggering 370 per cent in the 20 months to August 2008, with urea following a similar trajectory, if less extreme.

Since August, when the shocks of the credit crunch began to hit oil prices, fertiliser prices in general have fallen 18-26pc.

How much of this fall flows through to the Australian farm sector depends on the yo-yoing of the Australian dollar. And future pricing of fertiliser depends on several other fundamentals that make an unreadable stew of cause and effect.

Adam Tomlinson, a Rabobank commodities analyst, says there are so many factors at work that it’s impossible to forecast where the trends are headed.

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Comments


Date: Newest first | Oldest first
Finally, they were "gouging" us.
Posted by Gippslander on 15/10/2008 5:07:56 PM
When the Aussie dollar, Incitec, and the rest of the world currency controls are considered, there is no way we can expect that fertilizer prices will ever return to the level of 20 months ago. Now that they have got us used to paying the exorbitant rates as exist now, they will not be willing to reduce it back to the pre-crisis levels. Hope I am wrong, but history is against it.
Posted by Trugger on 15/10/2008 8:45:31 PM
Now that Aust operates in a global market this is reality. The prices we get for our crops/production are set by the market as are the inputs such as fertilizer....what can you do!
Posted by concerned on 16/10/2008 9:12:49 AM
In a small country like swaziland it is unnerving to realise that the fertilizer cost per Ha is equivalent to 4.5 tonnes of maize. That is almost 3 times the average yield by small scale farmers. Is this a precursor to even more massive starvation.
Posted by Sipho on 20/10/2008 7:22:34 PM

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21/11/2008 | AWI's new board can only succeed in old battles by fighting in new ways.
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