Drought-affected farmers will know better than to have their hopes raised too high by the latest three-month forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology.
It says that for most of Australia the odds of a wetter than average three months ahead are 50pc or better in some cases.
But that is much the same as the forecast at the start of winter, when some good falls and a good forecast encouraged farmers to plant a record crop in the belief that the drought was finally over.
Alas, the coin has again fallen on the 'tails' instead of 'heads'. The season has failed, and fewer and fewer farmers are able to double up their bets on another 50:50 forecast.
The situation is now incredibly dire - irrigation allocations are next to nought, livestock are flooding the markets, and this year's crop is all but gone.
The Government is right to again relax its criteria and expand its cash payments under its exceptional circumstances drought assistance policy.
Those measures should provide relief to more farmers than ever before, but the question again remains whether those promises will be borne out in reality.
The Federal Government has relaxed those criteria three times in three years, each time with the promise of easier access. And while this has been true, many farmers have still found it difficult to get their hands on the much-needed assistance.
And while cash is vitally important to keep rural communities alive, this time it may be too late for some.
The prospect that permanent plantings could die will mean the effects of this drought - and the taxpayer bill - will continue for many years to come.
* What do you think of the Federal Government's new drought package?